MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d6ce6cb0724fd7eb683e6bd488822af1afb541affff82a790275886704ce7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 47c | 130,680$61,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,275.87 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 53c | 60,000$31,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,200 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under | 53c | 56,781$30,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,686.92 | 310 | 39%121 W · 189 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 54c | 5,500$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 3,666$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.76 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 1,261$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.84 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 982.39$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.05 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 664.72$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 568.27$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.52 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 50c | 567.64$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.58 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 525.8$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.87 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 525.1$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 508.31$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.9 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 478.92$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 54c | 362.73$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 320.89$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 304.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 294.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Under | 54c | 243.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 54c | 188.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Under | 54c | 106.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 55c | 99.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 54c | 90.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 48c | 89.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 14c | 87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 54c | 71.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 67.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 54c | 53.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 54c | 52.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 49.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…a021backed Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 50c | 42.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 39.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 50c | 37.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Over | 46c | 36.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Over | 52c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Under | 54c | 32.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 54c | 29.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 54c | 26.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Over | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.