MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5282ac500cee234e744e6fa352266e050aa3c06691603ad6d73ef096d25b77c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 3,902$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.81 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 3,272$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 1,956$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 1,610$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.65 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 1,288$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 1,132$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 945.68$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.36 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 882.9$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 774.63$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.11 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 573.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 326.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 281.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 252.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 250.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 24c | 238.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 215.75$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 126.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 123.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 122.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 117.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 114.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 106.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 78.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 69.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 63.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 46.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 39.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 29.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…ce07backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 21.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…3635backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.