TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb917…02c6backed Over68c14,489$9,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,682.833066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under37c8,061$2,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,947.33,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over64c6,680$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.616761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ee2…c9cdbacked Over67c4,377$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.911050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under33c4,103$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.3148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under35c4,078$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.911,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under32c3,500$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.042,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Over64c2,602$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over67c2,543$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.738068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under32c2,418$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.8538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under33c2,155$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.991,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under36c2,151$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under32c2,031$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7209854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under32c2,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.994240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.972152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over66c1,985$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.92055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under28c1,808$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.6764043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under34c1,585$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.846549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over67c1,464$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.619856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Under37c1,406$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.722860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under33c1,224$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1133047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under36c1,054$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over70c968.03$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.414461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under34c960.75$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8915540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under1c950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over55c898.43$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.765276.9%40 W · 12 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+72%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under33c837.63$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3242046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f64…1bcbbacked Over60c805.2$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over55c802.67$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.4114055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over69c782.28$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5118759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under33c781$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under33c780.23$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5849647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over66c768.83$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under33c756.11$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over57c733.6$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4612460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Over66c664.87$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf45…ea2cbacked Over65c615.49$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.424100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Over69c581.46$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.011275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16029855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under40c477.86$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over65c451.85$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1518958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under34c436.03$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.531,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under36c403.87$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.398950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under36c403.87$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.398851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over62c403.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.335364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over77c385.24$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.666564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x458c…ee3ebacked Over65c377.1$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.376100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under36c355.79$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.098949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Under36c338.48$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under34c335.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.261,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over55c302.51$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1316464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked Over65c301.23$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.436149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Over70c294.6$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.381931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over55c285.77$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.616056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under36c280$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.81643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under31c258.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0915742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under43c228.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5921540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8234655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Under31c197.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.223641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over70c196.4$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over65c192.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.483167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under35c161.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under32c152.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under35c152.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.339838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x724c…1521backed Over65c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.721668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aed…6e05backed Over65c150.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over65c150.19$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2810863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4923745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under32c148.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5211148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under32c148.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5211049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8a…acc5backed Over66c148.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under31c148$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.64533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under33c147.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3821051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under36c136.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.065743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Under27c133.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.694330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over64c133.35$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under37c130.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.111330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under38c114.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3214642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under34c109.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5781732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under41c105.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.078347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+37.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over63c97.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1838845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf064…54a4backed Over63c97.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Over69c90.23$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.971770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5578…f06cbacked Over65c84.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under36c82.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.062853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under36c82.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.066860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Over65c75.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.361346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over66c74.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.233467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over70c70.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.044261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0c…0852backed Over67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.15466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9c…a021backed Under36c66.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…5403backed Under34c65.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.