Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79579a2b980f68a5c66180784a62ec1012cc5b84401c1777d52262488b5e5580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Bayern München | 28c | 6,914$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,971.72 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 68c | 2,123$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 2,093$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.92 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 71c | 1,108$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.1 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 999.99$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed FC Bayern München | 31c | 928.14$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc645…e8bbbacked FC Bayern München | 25c | 762.32$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 469.18$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked FC Bayern München | 47c | 430.66$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.3 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 403.05$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 370$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed FC Bayern München | 33c | 356.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 352.84$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.12 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked FC Bayern München | 31c | 306.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed FC Bayern München | 29c | 289.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 288.93$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 270.47$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 250.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 227.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed FC Bayern München | 47c | 226.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 71c | 196.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 196.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 63c | 163.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 61c | 160.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked FC Bayern München | 46c | 137.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 133.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked FC Bayern München | 27c | 131.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Bayern München | 52c | 122.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed FC Bayern München | 31c | 103.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 90.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 90.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 90.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed FC Bayern München | 33c | 87.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked FC Bayern München | 30c | 83.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…4ebdbacked FC Bayern München | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 68.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed FC Bayern München | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed FC Bayern München | 26c | 55.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 47.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 46.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Bayern München | 79c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked FC Bayern München | 46c | 31.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked FC Bayern München | 33c | 29.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…3ba4backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.