Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf85cfb51e5041dd6935275d789cb32c458eb41d3415fe7218769b53c53291f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,926$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 68c | 2,580$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.02 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 1,529$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 32c | 1,526$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 1,307$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.52 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 38c | 1,244$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 38c | 1,186$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.66 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 1,085$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.53 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 17c | 1,016$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.56 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 17c | 699.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 12c | 676.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.31 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 63c | 530.28$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 523.55$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 48c | 451.08$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 385.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 306.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 11c | 285.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 19c | 235$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 12c | 189.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 78c | 184.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 39c | 178.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 48c | 172.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 70c | 151.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 68c | 144.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Over | 69c | 142.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…18ecbacked Over | 78c | 121.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Over | 32c | 119.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 44c | 118.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 116.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 24c | 99.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 12c | 98.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 46c | 94.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 20c | 91.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 72c | 82.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…b7fdbacked Over | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…4144backed Over | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…c5b7backed Over | 22c | 61.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 27c | 57.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Over | 41c | 56.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 66c | 45.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…08cabacked Over | 24c | 44.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 75c | 35.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Over | 69c | 35.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 29.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 76c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Over | 51c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 68c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…e809backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…9c42backed Under | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.