Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc70500ba2fe404b178ff29ad28004c5d3ac1158d6b283c3e4db0083a4bb0e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 9,637$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 4,128$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 14c | 2,025$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 15c | 1,552$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 11c | 856.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 12c | 691.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 12c | 563.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 14c | 547.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 14c | 430.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 11c | 417.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Under | 13c | 362.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 15c | 219.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 15c | 219.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 15c | 219.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 11c | 205.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 15c | 142.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 14c | 134.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 14c | 119.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Under | 12c | 101.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 15c | 83.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.