MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe2ec337b764c076fee1bcacd8b216846d0ff23152becddbc5bebc8d60d66483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 56c | 12,840$7,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,174.32 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 53c | 5,819$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.72 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 4,829$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.1 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 4,503$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…9504backed Over | 47c | 3,190$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,198$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.91 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 2,092$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.13 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 1,095$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.65 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 37c | 919.65$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…25abbacked Under | 52c | 821.52$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 52c | 582$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.36 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 521.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.79 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 507.73$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Over | 48c | 484.4$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.51 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 342.86$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 48c | 309.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…9c3abacked Over | 47c | 309$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Under | 55c | 304.28$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 46c | 295.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 294$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 28c | 291.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 272.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Under | 55c | 261.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 47c | 245.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 65c | 244.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 49c | 237.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 51c | 224.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 48c | 209.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 46c | 194.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Over | 47c | 188.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 54c | 188.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 187.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Under | 54c | 114.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Over | 48c | 103.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 54c | 90.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 52c | 90.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 77.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 75.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 62.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Over | 47c | 61.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 53c | 59.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 53c | 59.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 52c | 56.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 49.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Over | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…a021backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 27c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 48c | 42.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 52c | 41.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 52c | 41.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…b072backed Under | 52c | 41.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 27c | 41.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 48c | 36.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 36.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 36.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 46c | 34.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Under | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 54c | 31.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 45c | 30.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 52c | 28.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 54c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…5b88backed Under | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 53c | 23.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Under | 54c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Athletics vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.