Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Anna Kalinskaya vs Sonay Kartal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87f25d57c42d3df598d4c26e34c1b945ae8fe268363efe0fff220d96789e2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalinskayaof Kalinskaya, Kartal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27c5…6d61backed Kartal | 40c | 9,060$3,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.68 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kalinskaya | 61c | 5,367$3,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.12 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 3,270$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.38 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kalinskaya | 60c | 1,819$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.13 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kalinskaya | 61c | 1,295$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.06 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Kartal | 39c | 940.36$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Kartal | 37c | 732$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Kalinskaya | 54c | 555.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Kartal | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 465.8$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kartal | 46c | 400.07$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.87 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kartal | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Kartal | 52c | 296.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kartal | 49c | 284.43$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…5466backed Kartal | 53c | 237.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kartal | 13c | 222.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Kalinskaya | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 151$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Kartal | 38c | 149.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kalinskaya | 47c | 141.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kartal | 45c | 140.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 268 | 33.6%90 W · 178 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…59f3backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Kartal | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 271 | 31.4%85 W · 186 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kalinskaya | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Kalinskaya | 57c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kalinskaya | 62c | 89.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Kalinskaya | 46c | 80.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Kartal | 46c | 76.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Kartal | 46c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Kartal | 43c | 64.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Kartal | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kartal | 43c | 50.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kartal | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Kartal | 41c | 46.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Kalinskaya | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 39.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Kartal | 41c | 35.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Kalinskaya | 62c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Kalinskaya | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Kalinskaya | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Kalinskaya | 61c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.