College Football · resolved market
Wyoming vs. Air Force
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88b33bf66809bc0496db398e1d4ee86a3351afdd169825bec1fe216dc18dc38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Air Forceof Wyoming, Air Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Air Force | 64c | 15,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.99 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wyoming | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wyoming | 67c | 4,691$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.06 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wyoming | 36c | 3,638$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.68 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Air Force | 41c | 3,018$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.13 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Air Force | 61c | 2,597$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.72 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Wyoming | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wyoming | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…7a42backed Wyoming | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Wyoming | 36c | 826.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.57 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Air Force | 62c | 781$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Wyoming | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Air Force | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Air Force | 40c | 444.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.62 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Wyoming | 36c | 420$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Wyoming | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wyoming | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…ae92backed Air Force | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Wyoming | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Air Force | 62c | 219.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Wyoming | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Wyoming | 35c | 195.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Air Force | 55c | 172.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Air Force | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Wyoming | 67c | 150.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Air Force | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force | 63c | 105.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Wyoming | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Wyoming | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Air Force | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Wyoming | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Wyoming | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Air Force | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…8eacbacked Wyoming | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Wyoming | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Air Force | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Wyoming | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…d24bbacked Wyoming | 38c | 43.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Wyoming | 36c | 43.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Air Force | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…3f15backed Air Force | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Wyoming | 36c | 38.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Wyoming | 65c | 37.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Air Force | 35c | 37.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Wyoming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…a3e2backed Air Force | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…4f41backed Air Force | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…2ebbbacked Air Force | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wyoming vs. Air Forcethis page
- O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: Air Force (-4.5)Wyoming won
- Wyoming vs. Air Force: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.