Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe89771348b6f5b9490e025a5d3643e6613cae967f0bc1d52d6618edeb8c7d552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 447.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 308.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 277.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 9c | 163.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 151.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 19c | 132.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 129.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 123.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 122.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 72c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 31c | 110.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 107.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 97.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 75c | 92.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 76c | 85.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 80.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 74.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 61.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 60.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 25c | 50.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 48.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 46.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 44.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 40.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 37.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…4fe0backed Yes | 28c | 35.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 33.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 78c | 32.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 32c | 31.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 68c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 73c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.