MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b25f0e158ae3fd74fa5a2ca171214d9f884974a8fb3be306fcd46bcb75bc93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 17,670$7,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,269.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 13,509$8,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,489.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 4,329$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 2,405$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 1,937$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.24 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 30c | 886.92$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 796.86$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 63c | 650$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 427.64$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 392$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 31c | 191$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 76c | 183.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 182.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 39c | 156.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 57c | 121.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 41c | 114.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 111.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Under | 38c | 80.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 78.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 61c | 62.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 61c | 61.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 55.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 66c | 51.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 49c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 44c | 47.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 70c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 42.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 55c | 35.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 70c | 33.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 70c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 33c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 64c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.