MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fcbae2e98236f35af7db8174d2b5f08a2ae48c5a22790069d5a06f6f836cc7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 54c | 54,207$29,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,935.25 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 50,000$23,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,000 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 55c | 14,695$8,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,615.34 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 11,599$6,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,962.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 11,503$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,901.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 8,592$3,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,866.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 46c | 6,250$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.98 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 27c | 4,185$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 2,783$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 2,750$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 2,419$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 2,220$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 34c | 1,400$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.98 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.1 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 45c | 780$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 709.8$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.27 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 280.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 77c | 196.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 190.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 46c | 180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 154.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Under | 47c | 151.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 149.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 148.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 34c | 134.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 58c | 116.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 56c | 104.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 45c | 95.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd405…a049backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 41c | 77.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 59c | 74.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 53.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 46c | 50.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 57c | 44.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…e8bcbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 77c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Under | 47c | 37.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 36.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Under | 47c | 32.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 31.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Under | 70c | 30.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 42c | 28.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 45c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked Under | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Over | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 64c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…debbbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.