MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e09dcad0f41416f0c89ffbb67cb3a0c376419b1d669687d0dd707ec93e02bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 54c | 50,000$27,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,999.99 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 46c | 27,672$12,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,729.12 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 20,812$9,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,576.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 9,439$4,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 54c | 6,250$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.99 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 3,323$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 61c | 1,689$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.25 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,112$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 54c | 1,042$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.32 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 1,042$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.32 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.32 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.32 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 46c | 791.12$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.85 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 703.86$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 53c | 415.35$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 80c | 383.74$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.99 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 40c | 372.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 192.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 46c | 173.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 60c | 146$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 65c | 144.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 138.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 71c | 119.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 25c | 119$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 53c | 109.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 106.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 106.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 53c | 104$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 98.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 96.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 43c | 92.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 89.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 60c | 76.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 65.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 47c | 65.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 55.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Over | 76c | 48.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked Under | 34c | 46.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 43.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 37c | 41.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 31.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Under | 55c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Over | 76c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Under | 55c | 25.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 23.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Under | 55c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…eb35backed Under | 55c | 18.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Under | 55c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…7141backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.