MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9de83240a84ca7112bfcd1c11c4bb3a6a6ee9c5c53dd27daa4b3a24032faa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 21c | 13,396$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 11,167$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 5,419$3,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 3,553$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 22c | 3,208$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 2,235$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 687.86$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 504$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 468.54$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 28c | 431.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.13 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 279.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 253$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 161$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Kansas City Royals | 18c | 152$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 8c | 140.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 112.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 85.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 64.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 55.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 34.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 33.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 30.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.