Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b5c16864611098842c7f60f8ae65693149c31710f0719e5c45a4e8dacdee85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 23c | 12,299$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,448.96 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 5,916$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 78c | 2,960$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.88 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…ff11backed No | 41c | 2,353$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 56c | 1,895$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.4 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 66c | 1,653$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.83 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed No | 44c | 1,318$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,149$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yes | 67c | 355.24$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 22c | 296.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 291.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed No | 44c | 289.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 52c | 251.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Yes | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 46c | 235.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 222.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked No | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 36c | 157.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 154.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 58c | 149.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 102.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Yes | 21c | 91.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…2482backed No | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…c83ebacked Yes | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 79c | 61.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 28c | 54.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed Yes | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 53.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 24c | 50.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 42c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed No | 34c | 45.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Yes | 57c | 37.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…0b4dbacked Yes | 62c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 73c | 20.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed No | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.