Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bf24718da000c3cdba4ef076f185e8f2c88c5ba6229a4864472defd44f997e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 430.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 151.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 34c | 139.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 135.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 31c | 130.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 67c | 110.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 108.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 107.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 93.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 85.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 77.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 70c | 76.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 71.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 70.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 59.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 33c | 55.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 64c | 53.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 45.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 43.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 70c | 43.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 43.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 42.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 29c | 42.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 41.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 36c | 41.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 25c | 40.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 40.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 37.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 36.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7877…b611backed No | 61c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 31.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 73c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 69c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.