Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec9d49c03ca3c4cb5641018deddf6920558a4e681b4dc2ac313a84eb1d6b9078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 54c | 322.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.23 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 320.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 169.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 168.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 65c | 132.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 125.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 116$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 104.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 29c | 103.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 79c | 101.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 101.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 86.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 86.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 86.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 84.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 84.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 83.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 71.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…f7e6backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 58.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 25c | 56.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 23c | 53.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 52.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 29c | 48.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 48.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 42.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 42.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 62c | 35.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 71c | 34.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 63c | 34.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 30.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 26.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 26.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 24.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 68c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked Yes | 73c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…ac83backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.