Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0358ca7f8603752d14b3a156344772884dab72fa73816a75b7272c4ba2a4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 527.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 405.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 76c | 393.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 326.56$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 73c | 263$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 40c | 228.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 208.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 176.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 152.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 146.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 133.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 124.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 14c | 122.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 121.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 13c | 109.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 19c | 100.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 67c | 96.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 89.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 79.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 72.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 67.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 52c | 54.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 65c | 45.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 45.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed No | 58c | 39.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 25.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…791ebacked No | 72c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed No | 67c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.