South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d991591be6de27a8db3234fa1f947f1d80cc53a7a235923609b6739786e1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 56c | 2,685$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.8 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,972$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.62 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,630$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 23c | 1,328$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,186$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 678.02$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 45c | 610.73$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…fe7bbacked No | 48c | 219.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Yes | 52c | 192.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 32c | 160.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Yes | 13c | 154.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 13c | 115.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 86.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 81.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked No | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 41c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 45c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 46c | 31.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 53c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 68c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will Club León FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?No won
- Will Club León FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.