Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e2791345852ef0f1702faacb242cc529e59da566ed70de574840d757c7220c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellucciof Fokina, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Bellucci | 57c | 1,721$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.96 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Bellucci | 58c | 1,700$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.85 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fokina | 42c | 1,606$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.48 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Fokina | 43c | 999.98$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Bellucci | 55c | 918.6$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.15 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fokina | 43c | 772.45$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.88 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Fokina | 48c | 735.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Fokina | 47c | 309.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fokina | 45c | 229.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Bellucci | 52c | 189.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Fokina | 45c | 184.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…ab90backed Bellucci | 56c | 172.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Fokina | 42c | 159.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Fokina | 43c | 142.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bellucci | 59c | 134.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…9666backed Fokina | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 484 | 40.3%195 W · 289 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Fokina | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Fokina | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Fokina | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Fokina | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Bellucci | 52c | 89.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Fokina | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Bellucci | 52c | 65.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Bellucci | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…abf1backed Bellucci | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Fokina | 45c | 51.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fokina | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fokina | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Bellucci | 57c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…b271backed Bellucci | 57c | 27.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Bellucci | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b7…fd93backed Fokina | 45c | 22.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)this page
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Fokina vs. Bellucci: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs BellucciBellucci won
- Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia BellucciMattia Bellucci won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.