TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over23c3,665$833 inLost-$833.21,60438.9%624 W · 980 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under76c2,035$1,544 inWon+$491.443,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over14c1,695$237 inLost-$237.2838144.1%168 W · 213 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over10c583.31$56 inLost-$56.392,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5881…ca26backed Under78c310.9$243 inWon+$68.46100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over26c158.47$41 inLost-$40.9581440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Over15c152.69$23 inLost-$22.926417.8%47 W · 217 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under77c120.53$93 inWon+$27.7231856%178 W · 140 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under76c101.98$78 inWon+$24.0485260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under76c101.97$78 inWon+$24.0458061.9%359 W · 221 L+22.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under77c86.27$67 inWon+$19.7329959.5%178 W · 121 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over15c83.3$12 inLost-$12.565549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under77c81.27$63 inWon+$18.6939357.5%226 W · 167 L+17.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under77c80.35$62 inWon+$18.4819163.4%121 W · 70 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Under76c26.32$20 inWon+$6.324278.6%33 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Under77c20.35$16 inWon+$4.716969.6%48 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Under77c19.86$15 inWon+$4.67580%60 W · 15 L+12.6wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+27.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under78c17.15$13 inWon+$3.778869.3%61 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.