Europa Conference League · resolved market
Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e5a8e920a8b445289f2b426eaec08689e5da10b565e30d371059352f167a0fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 2,154$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.61 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 1,952$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.91 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 20c | 1,666$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.82 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Under | 60c | 1,547$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,053$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.65 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 3c | 751.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 586.24$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 38c | 537.04$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…adc5backed Over | 25c | 530$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 11c | 458.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 350.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 40c | 150.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 52c | 136.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 48c | 136.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Over | 9c | 129.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 69c | 122.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 69c | 52.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 52.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 33c | 43.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 69c | 33.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 68c | 30.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 50c | 25.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.7wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 69c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 3.5this page
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia O/U 0.5Over won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia O/U 2.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: Panathinaikós AO O/U 1.5Under won
- Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia: Panathinaikós AO O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-1.5)FK CSKA 1948 Sofia won
- Spread: Panathinaikós AO (-2.5)FK CSKA 1948 Sofia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.