Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92b127ca57056705f98de00411374e46a335505d7c5afaed63248a5b1037066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a9…7aaabacked Yes | 0c | 23,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 815.92$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 624.6$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 595.25$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 570.09$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 471.92$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 176.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 162.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 150.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 144.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 127.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 115.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 62c | 108.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 40c | 103.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 93.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 89.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 29c | 88.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 86.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 36c | 81.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 75.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 65c | 75.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 75.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 74.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 73.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 68c | 70.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 39c | 66.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…c74ebacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 61.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed Yes | 39c | 58.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 25c | 52.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…ed1ebacked Yes | 39c | 41.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 36.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 36.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 33c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 35c | 29.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 79c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 67c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.