Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102974a05ad8f0f52c3e8970a73fbc268e6bb242ba93a26900decf94615e7eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,156$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 827.49$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 452.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 400.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 258.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 239.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 210$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 209.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 205.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 186.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 180.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 22c | 180$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 68c | 152.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 139.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 70c | 120.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 22c | 110.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 22c | 109.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 74c | 108.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…c691backed Yes | 25c | 93.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 93.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 60c | 84.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 31c | 80.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 79.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 77.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 74.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 70.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 67.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 60.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 54.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 50.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 51c | 43.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 40.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 39.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 36.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 73c | 35.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 31.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 76c | 30.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 24.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 23.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 17.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…9c18backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.