Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94142c69186077f605b6793acbbcd0e91a9dfd146c16b48a2006818f2c9ff60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Up | 10c | 33,391$3,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.68 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…43c0backed Up | 5c | 6,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 76c | 4,024$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.22 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 58c | 2,701$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.17 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 7c | 2,208$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Down | 73c | 1,853$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.54 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…83a6backed Up | 20c | 1,439$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Down | 74c | 1,334$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.35 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…51e3backed Up | 4c | 1,253$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 66c | 975.86$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 14c | 879.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Down | 51c | 805$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 65c | 587.56$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Up | 7c | 510.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…e2b1backed Up | 24c | 402$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 4c | 335$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Up | 24c | 295.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Up | 23c | 232.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 70c | 228.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Up | 21c | 201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 44c | 201$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Up | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Up | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Up | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Up | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…5ed7backed Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Up | 41c | 180.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Down | 79c | 124.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 74c | 122.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Down | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Up | 25c | 79.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…8a00backed Up | 34c | 30.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Up | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked Up | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.