NFL · resolved market
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe975d9461c6540e6e7b9523f4c7ac4b5eb365f819129d063b49cf1c3c7034618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9128…4a0ebacked Yes | 12c | 41,539$4,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,975 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 7,280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 27c | 6,500$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 2c | 2,531$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 14c | 1,860$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed Yes | 27c | 1,730$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.22 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 1,430$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 25c | 1,417$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.57 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 26c | 1,378$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 73c | 896.99$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 78c | 660$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 76c | 333$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…b378backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south?this page
- Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South?No won
- Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.