NFL · resolved market
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ecdbccbfc9878b7316688f1f8c45bfa636e2c49aab4799c0e6ea9659e9a2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0997…c238backed Yes | 47c | 3,391$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 48c | 1,588$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.96 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…1046backed Yes | 47c | 1,046$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 77c | 998.68$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.7 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…bad3backed No | 29c | 951.26$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 69c | 644.07$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.54 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 51c | 481.42$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.91 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 53c | 473.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.28 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 41c | 385.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…2b79backed No | 43c | 371.62$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 19c | 298.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…e65fbacked Yes | 69c | 289.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 252.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…56c2backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 45c | 134$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 47c | 122.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 52c | 120.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 51c | 114.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed No | 22c | 109.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 27c | 105.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 60c | 101.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…9013backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe1…6c97backed Yes | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…aab2backed Yes | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South?this page
- Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south?No won
- Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.