NFL · resolved market
The "Saquon Special" Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9811f1188814005b1434e9f693f8e893bacbb654003dba15792121879384263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 17c | 6,768$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 14c | 5,802$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.25 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 14c | 5,283$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.56 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…e53bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,947$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 12c | 806.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1b…9397backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf4…3ea5backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…ebd0backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 571.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…46a2backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…9fc2backed Yes | 19c | 429.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…0c91backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 12c | 204.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 13c | 189.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 14c | 178.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…2353backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…13c9backed Yes | 13c | 146.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…df62backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 133.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…38b1backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…b76bbacked Yes | 14c | 117.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 77c | 115.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…2ba8backed Yes | 14c | 107.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…29eebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…8c17backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d544backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +104%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…7e65backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…1b30backed Yes | 12c | 96.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…ceaabacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cd…da1cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 71c | 49.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…b566backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…b745backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…ca5bbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.