Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe981e4764161235a76c5edd42c0724e93c9cdfe9e8bd3edc104feef74cea64b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Zero Tenacity, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity | 49c | 11,901$5,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,069.52 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed AVULUS | 51c | 3,907$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.45 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 49c | 3,256$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.97 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 47c | 2,724$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.89 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AVULUS | 20c | 1,646$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 44c | 1,521$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Zero Tenacity | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 3c | 970.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed AVULUS | 30c | 919$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.58 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed AVULUS | 51c | 682.94$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.3 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Zero Tenacity | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed AVULUS | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed AVULUS | 36c | 367.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Zero Tenacity | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 312.87$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked AVULUS | 44c | 278.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed AVULUS | 48c | 264.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Zero Tenacity | 70c | 213.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Zero Tenacity | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed AVULUS | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Zero Tenacity | 54c | 182.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS | 14c | 123.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Zero Tenacity | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Zero Tenacity | 60c | 88.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Zero Tenacity | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 30c | 69.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Zero Tenacity | 50c | 68.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Zero Tenacity | 55c | 64.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked AVULUS | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AVULUS | 33c | 54.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked AVULUS | 28c | 51.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 47c | 47.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed AVULUS | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Zero Tenacity | 65c | 28.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Zero Tenacity | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed AVULUS | 49c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…205fbacked Zero Tenacity | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.