South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9998e14081a33ef4baecd4aae089f503b263b0610033fcc10d9b8db1e13e297
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,479 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 5,317$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.19 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 3,418$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.11 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 26c | 2,815$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,770$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.79 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 1,764$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.96 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,249$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.8 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 1,204$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.26 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,112$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,026$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.16 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 984.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.21 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 27c | 864.04$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 74c | 770$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 79c | 729.28$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 30c | 635.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 79c | 599$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 25c | 567.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.52 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 500.36$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 500$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 342.81$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.68 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 59c | 327.44$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 75c | 263.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 29c | 211.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 26c | 183.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 182.27$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 58c | 175.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 9c | 162.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 70c | 142.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…258ebacked Yes | 75c | 132.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 78c | 128.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…649cbacked Yes | 26c | 122.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 19c | 107.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 105.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 10c | 102.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…d55cbacked Yes | 37c | 101.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed Yes | 26c | 89.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 88.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 74c | 77.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 54.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 60c | 48.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 46.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 78c | 38.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed No | 70c | 35.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 35.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 74c | 32.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…c599backed Yes | 75c | 32.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…8703backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57c…044abacked Yes | 77c | 13.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -74%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-10?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.