South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30928f4aad6c4c6d563084b14811d222532a1f918b73f4d38b75e2a709222020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,273 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 8c | 7,120$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.61 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 1,732$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.62 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,255$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.77 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 28c | 1,155$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.94 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 1,008$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…fb4abacked Yes | 3c | 914.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 794.12$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 15c | 697.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 683.47$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 5c | 583.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 80c | 534.07$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 533.17$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Yes | 20c | 403.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 389.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 21c | 323$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…4086backed Yes | 23c | 310.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 6c | 258.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…d55cbacked Yes | 35c | 237.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 5c | 221.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…352bbacked Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 169.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 80c | 121.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed No | 80c | 120.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 23c | 112.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 74c | 111.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 110.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…ece9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…f362backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…b669backed Yes | 20c | 99.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 73c | 97.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…ea3fbacked Yes | 22c | 95.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c4…9983backed Yes | 22c | 71.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 66c | 61.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 59.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…44e5backed Yes | 20c | 58.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 79c | 58.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…e751backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383e…d998backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082a…defabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Yes | 21c | 49.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 27c | 47.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 73c | 40.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.