Ukraine · resolved market
Crimean bridge hit before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a43ff661092c496b75e3902a3bffb1a0856d7ab4027ec23be83c95b4cf82e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 10,974$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.33 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…2480backed Yes | 15c | 2,296$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 16c | 699.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 74c | 612.71$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 9c | 547.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 533.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 6c | 249.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 13c | 248.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 212.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 195.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 10c | 183.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 13c | 175.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 73c | 167$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Yes | 15c | 163.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…cf4abacked Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 80c | 152.46$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked Yes | 14c | 147.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…adf0backed Yes | 11c | 130.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…afbebacked Yes | 16c | 116.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…3b09backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…aa43backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…558cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 51.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…4573backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…be8bbacked No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.