Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea win vs Manchester City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a6834cb82bf8a97f4887761d8e783239c7e58be477a8d3ee66476324f2c615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e3…c7f2backed Yes | 24c | 44,920$10,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,796.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 72c | 27,036$19,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,570.07 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 76c | 6,000$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,803$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,043$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 75c | 1,980$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.39 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 1,667$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.73 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 23c | 1,654$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 77c | 1,206$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 10c | 892.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 28c | 860.58$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 72c | 704.29$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 511.04$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 76c | 501.5$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 23c | 476$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…ff37backed No | 77c | 430.75$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 8c | 309.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…0adebacked Yes | 25c | 290$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked No | 74c | 244$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…2de6backed Yes | 23c | 178.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 73c | 160$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…9a06backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…b8adbacked Yes | 24c | 124.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…431fbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…ee56backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…91a4backed Yes | 30c | 57.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…5b3fbacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…8eabbacked Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…e58ebacked Yes | 27c | 48.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc751…990ebacked No | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2e…8b5dbacked No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…296abacked No | 74c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…9505backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…1d9abacked No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea win vs Manchester City?this page
- Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?No won
- Will Manchester City win vs Chelsea?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.