Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6791c56eeeb24a5162fc7d7f8dcd4f5ef3fefe3083f1d1b76ec1624c8baa4a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9bb…015dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,072$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,104$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.92 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…fa22backed No | 75c | 880$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…00f3backed Yes | 24c | 817.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2667…8334backed No | 75c | 815.47$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…c306backed Yes | 26c | 707.69$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 24c | 668.89$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…df04backed No | 75c | 579.33$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff4…2b03backed No | 75c | 559.49$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 76c | 351.05$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Yes | 26c | 319.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 20c | 269.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…5f9dbacked No | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…a11bbacked Yes | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x609e…89c4backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…ffd7backed No | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 26c | 157.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…c863backed No | 76c | 152.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6c…b408backed No | 76c | 148.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799f…a9ebbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…a111backed No | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 24c | 89.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…2cd1backed Yes | 26c | 86.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 75c | 75.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 24c | 69.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…4877backed Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…825dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…7320backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…9aecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…3d3abacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea win vs Manchester City?No won
- Will Manchester City win vs Chelsea?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.