MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9bf98e49570e6e6e739fdbab1e9db25e0c74497f1f20fc98efa4dc96f852169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 4,007$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 45c | 1,620$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,130$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c61…fce1backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 688.14$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 487$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 464.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 198.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 30c | 162.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 43c | 160.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 112.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 111.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 73.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 26c | 52.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Over | 46c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 29.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 67c | 28.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.