MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ad111c774a895f9c30a66fbb08b826b9696cd78b8ec70c0c01e16bacbc340f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 2,946$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 1,909$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.75 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 1,022$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 999.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.49 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 857.93$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 620.96$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.43 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 492.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.21 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 488.73$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 470.15$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 234$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 221.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 170.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 107.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 107.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 107.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 78.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 75.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 71.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 55.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 34.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.