Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c3ebaab00a4db30a58af3e2fc6e035763b74be397df2a8633d6102ea20d288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 547$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 466.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 6c | 447.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 8c | 446.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 430.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 412.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 349.76$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 31c | 307.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 303.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 49c | 296.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 58c | 274.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…4df3backed Yes | 46c | 254.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 242$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 8c | 228.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 44c | 221.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 204.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 203.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 203.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 198.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 29c | 194$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…d502backed Yes | 7c | 193.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 155.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 155.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 75c | 151.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 148.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 59c | 146.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 144.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 15c | 99.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 96.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 93.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes | 27c | 90.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 12c | 87.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 45c | 85.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 85.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 84.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 40c | 81.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 81.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 81.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 70.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 66.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 65.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 62.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 59.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…f5f6backed Yes | 32c | 58.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 56.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 62c | 50.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 45c | 49.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 52c | 49.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 31c | 46.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 40c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 73c | 44.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 40.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 40.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 39.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 38c | 38.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 43c | 37.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 37.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 43c | 33.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 64c | 30.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 45c | 28.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 52c | 27.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 36c | 27.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Yes | 48c | 27.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 50c | 27.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed Yes | 52c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 57c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 65c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.