TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes10c547$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.431,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes22c466.37$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4453925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes6c447.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.461650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+93%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes8c446.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0919047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes27c430.23$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.295,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes26c412.37$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c349.76$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes31c307.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.446747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c303.34$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes49c296.79$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.591,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No58c274.2$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…4df3backed Yes46c254.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c242$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes8c228.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes44c221.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes29c204.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.241,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes35c203.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.729626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c203.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.667,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes22c198.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.762,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes29c194$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.064344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeec2…d502backed Yes7c193.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No71c155.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.331,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c155.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed No75c151.08$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes25c148.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3921641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No59c146.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.239333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c144.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.461,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d14…abaebacked Yes15c99.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.363060%18 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c96.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.119,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c93.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked Yes27c90.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.831553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes12c87.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8816944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes45c85.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5612337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c85.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.481,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c84.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes40c81.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7910865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes35c81.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No73c81.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No57c70.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3319152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes48c66.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c65.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.022,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c62.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes41c59.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.351,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5c…f5f6backed Yes32c58.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No74c56.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.491,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No62c50.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes45c49.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3919430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes52c49.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf66…0179backed Yes31c46.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes40c44.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6913424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No73c44.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9113453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c43.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes25c40.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes43c40.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c39.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No48c39.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7611925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes38c38.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9221142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes43c37.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2714829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c37.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes43c33.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1217138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No64c30.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.785635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes45c28.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.687727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes39c28.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8616634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes52c27.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.446421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9982…2822backed Yes36c27.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.023234.4%11 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked Yes48c27.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.154663%29 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No50c27.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x694d…3ee2backed Yes52c22.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No57c19.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3915558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No76c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.77972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a79…c875backed No65c16.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.832748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No76c16.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.925449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.