Tennis · resolved market
Japan Women's Open: Elise Mertens vs Tereza Valentova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f27296e73b80fa0f3e213ba87954f84a94d3384fb2e6cf34b1ad6669dc1f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentovaof Mertens, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mertens | 23c | 23,780$5,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,462.79 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valentova | 73c | 19,993$14,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,474.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mertens | 27c | 6,418$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Valentova | 68c | 3,509$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.56 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Valentova | 76c | 2,371$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.65 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valentova | 55c | 2,362$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.63 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Mertens | 45c | 2,001$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed Valentova | 53c | 1,539$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +84%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Valentova | 67c | 1,418$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mertens | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Valentova | 60c | 1,388$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.51 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Valentova | 71c | 952.75$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mertens | 61c | 930$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.56 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Mertens | 29c | 760.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.55 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mertens | 20c | 507.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Valentova | 46c | 414.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.44 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Mertens | 28c | 317$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Mertens | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mertens | 34c | 252$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Valentova | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Mertens | 12c | 227$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Mertens | 45c | 220.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Mertens | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Valentova | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mertens | 62c | 188.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Mertens | 47c | 112.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Mertens | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Valentova | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Valentova | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Mertens | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Mertens | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mertens | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.