Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f428b8da4239694b42793d3e5363d1d71afaebad2fefc1a3131c0172353f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 2,532$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 20c | 1,232$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 792.66$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 678.91$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 17c | 608.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 394.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 10c | 379.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 353.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 329.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 9c | 325.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 25c | 293.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 283.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 250.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 238.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…4a0ebacked Yes | 19c | 232.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 229.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…70cbbacked Yes | 15c | 224.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 80c | 203.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 192.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 187.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 185.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 8c | 164.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 146.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 18c | 144.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 142.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 141.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 140.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 137.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 11c | 137.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 135.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 132.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…9744backed Yes | 9c | 130.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 15c | 125.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 20c | 112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 78c | 104.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 104.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed No | 79c | 97.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 25c | 79.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 23c | 77.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 76.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 66.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 17c | 62.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 62.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 75c | 52.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 36.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 80c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 23.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…53e0backed No | 78c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 76c | 13.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.