Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6912b61b6cd85241006e91cc5f88a6704cbe688085d9f6f2e2535a1d3527df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,634$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.45 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 68c | 358.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 59c | 356.1$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 70c | 308.47$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 24c | 304.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 301.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 281.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 279.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 267.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 248.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 41c | 243.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 15c | 238.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 206.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 33c | 204.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 203.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 202.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 64c | 195.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 36c | 187.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 24c | 187.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16dc…700fbacked Yes | 47c | 186.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 184.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 47c | 182.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 171.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 20c | 149.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 31c | 123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 28c | 120.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 29c | 117.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 22c | 116.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…c036backed Yes | 25c | 114.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 43c | 109.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 106.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 43c | 106.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 105.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 99.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 27c | 95.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 17c | 94.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 93.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 89.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 48c | 88.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 80.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 80.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 35c | 79.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 78.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked No | 70c | 75.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 37c | 75.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 58c | 73.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 28c | 70.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 65.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 65.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 29c | 64.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 63.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 63.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 34c | 59.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 31c | 57.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 56.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed Yes | 38c | 55.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 43c | 54.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 52.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 32c | 51.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 26c | 50.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 50.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 49.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 49.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 49.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 56c | 49.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 79c | 48.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes | 25c | 48.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 53c | 48.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 47.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 31c | 47.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed Yes | 46c | 47.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 42.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 25c | 41.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 79c | 38.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 34c | 36.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 66c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 58c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 31c | 33.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 39c | 32.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 53c | 32.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 63c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 76c | 28.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f870backed No | 77c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.