Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea33817da6c136cddf2cc7c3c09133b40998e5853f370a9cc5c7a6bc20139961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Utrechtof FC Porto, FC Utrecht
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Utrecht | 73c | 4,143$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.08 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed FC Porto | 24c | 2,200$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed FC Porto | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.12 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked FC Porto | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed FC Utrecht | 66c | 999.88$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed FC Porto | 28c | 427.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked FC Utrecht | 71c | 210.53$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked FC Porto | 29c | 172.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed FC Porto | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed FC Porto | 34c | 103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked FC Porto | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FC Porto | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…4a59backed FC Utrecht | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked FC Porto | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed FC Porto | 34c | 53.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed FC Porto | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed FC Porto | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked FC Utrecht | 67c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…1473backed FC Porto | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked FC Utrecht | 69c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)this page
- FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.