Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x832951c2b64027d59254b5f53bf0b1f3249756473637355af17185977db2ae58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 7,306$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 49c | 1,007$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 862.64$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.07 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Over | 54c | 514.59$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Over | 54c | 395.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 65c | 329.56$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 38c | 273.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 48c | 249.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 36c | 219.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 51c | 203.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 195.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Over | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 51c | 123.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 35c | 117.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 46c | 92.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Over | 49c | 83.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Over | 40c | 75.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Over | 51c | 58.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 54c | 58.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…da9cbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 55c | 47.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 53c | 46.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Under | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…a925backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecb…6f9fbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Over | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Utrecht won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.