Boxing · resolved market
Will Canelo win by KO/TKO Berlanga?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea6f9c9d366ee4a22d4cfbba402324144843dcd0e6165a2e08a7a5d96bb76f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Yes | 68c | 5,843$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 32c | 3,005$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 32c | 1,951$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 29c | 1,213$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 31c | 633$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed No | 31c | 330$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed No | 30c | 329.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…a54fbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed No | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canelo win by KO/TKO Berlanga?this page
- Will Canelo Alverez beat Edgar Berlanga?Alvarez won
- Will the fight reach the 9th round?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.