South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea954b1489eb32ac27a1b4d168857876369e8e62872231c8a6d98054bff2fe7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 11c | 2,554$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 77c | 959.19$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.72 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 20c | 952$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 29c | 897.91$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.85 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 809.31$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.39 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 71c | 790.69$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.3 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 68c | 576.94$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 17c | 558.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 17c | 554.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 70c | 354.34$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 75c | 311.56$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 32c | 299.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 70c | 205.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 21c | 185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 20c | 168.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 21c | 81.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 20c | 72.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 37c | 69.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 77c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 77c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 29c | 56.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Over | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…16fbbacked Over | 21c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 70c | 40.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 78c | 39.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 30c | 35.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…8859backed Under | 61c | 32.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…5c66backed Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 70c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Under | 70c | 16.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 80c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 78c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.