South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d2d496bea7830f558f5d9dfb8c8ce5dd5eb6227363a3466a13e4bbae6b4cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 2,356$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 43c | 2,234$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.08 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 6c | 1,600$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,378$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 52c | 936.27$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.38 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 792.8$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.48 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 69c | 560.75$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed Over | 36c | 504.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Under | 44c | 483.19$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 44c | 474.15$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.63 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 454.87$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.95 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 413.48$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.54 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 43c | 383.32$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 48c | 302.08$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 59c | 264$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 42c | 227.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 43c | 199.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Over | 57c | 196.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 41c | 189.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 57c | 171.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…5ff2backed Under | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 57c | 139.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over | 50c | 108.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 57c | 104.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 101.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 69c | 83.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 35c | 80.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 64c | 79.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 56c | 72.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 45c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 56c | 66.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 56c | 66.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…91e5backed Under | 32c | 57.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 59c | 54.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 57c | 51.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Under | 58c | 49.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 46.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…afb2backed Under | 34c | 42.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Over | 41c | 42.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 44c | 42.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 56c | 38.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 57c | 38.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 34c | 37.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +279.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 44c | 34.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under | 44c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 63c | 23.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 16 | 100%16 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 58c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 57c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CD Riestra won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.