Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeace277560a911089b6c992b7e77e9d3e1e23da356f7ef860fd08ab7eec435ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 0c | 16,554$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,860$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 4c | 4,670$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 2,202$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,920$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…6c24backed Yes | 6c | 1,461$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 1c | 1,418$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 4c | 820.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 5c | 808.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 5c | 620$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 7c | 398.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 348.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed Yes | 12c | 342.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked Yes | 4c | 329.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…4cc3backed Yes | 43c | 233.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 25?this page
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 23?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 24?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 26?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 27?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 28?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 29?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 30?No won
- U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.