Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead2f7ab96c0ff2f301fee324ec0e66f33edd80ea7609b1129c801c29bbc8bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HULIGANIof OG, HULIGANI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8992…ed1fbacked HULIGANI | 63c | 2,700$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed OG | 36c | 1,373$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.66 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed OG | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…b26bbacked OG | 43c | 1,053$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed OG | 37c | 1,031$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.73 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…12ccbacked HULIGANI | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2208backed OG | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed HULIGANI | 62c | 788.25$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.31 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked OG | 38c | 765.44$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.43 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked HULIGANI | 64c | 727$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.72 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed HULIGANI | 62c | 589.2$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed OG | 35c | 500.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed OG | 39c | 486.82$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed HULIGANI | 65c | 442.4$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked HULIGANI | 61c | 429.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed OG | 38c | 226.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed HULIGANI | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 48c | 109.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked OG | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…184abacked HULIGANI | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked OG | 43c | 89.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed HULIGANI | 20c | 89.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed HULIGANI | 55c | 84.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked HULIGANI | 64c | 78.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed HULIGANI | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed OG | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed HULIGANI | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked OG | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…f414backed HULIGANI | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed HULIGANI | 48c | 33.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 192 | 60.4%116 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked OG | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed HULIGANI | 54c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked HULIGANI | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…6c1ebacked HULIGANI | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked HULIGANI | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group StageOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerHULIGANI won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.