Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e4e55df344c85d65429647094ed6d00a946f96c741c0964d9fe2d98faf60ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.1 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 51c | 990$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 49c | 531.34$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.48 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 55c | 459.18$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 47c | 225.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Under | 51c | 223.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…56a1backed Under | 55c | 182.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Under | 54c | 180.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 54c | 180.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Under | 52c | 166$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 46c | 164.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 675 | 46.1%311 W · 364 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 45c | 158.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 48c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 46c | 124.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Over | 41c | 123.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Under | 55c | 113.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 56c | 107.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 45c | 96.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 92.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 59c | 68.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 46c | 55.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Under | 55c | 52.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 53c | 46.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Under | 52c | 44.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 192 | 60.4%116 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 48c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…a1ffbacked Under | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 54c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…6c1ebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group StageOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI - Game 2 WinnerHULIGANI won
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5)HULIGANI won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.