Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb04e346fbe37ea5f37b1edcb908b93c1322ad39eda6f5601291d38edb5fb3d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…5309backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 1,033$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 614.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 588.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 506.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 412.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 328.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 288.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 11c | 287.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 9c | 284.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 269.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 11c | 247.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 207.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 24c | 206.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 6c | 200.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…f7e6backed Yes | 7c | 176.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 13c | 160.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed No | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 121.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 25c | 119.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 30c | 102.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 80.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 72.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 68.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 26c | 58.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 24c | 49.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 35.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 75c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 20.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.