TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,655 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes56c1,015$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.15540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c683$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c656$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.755,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c604.9$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.315,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No40c376.2$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No26c363.96$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7922857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes12c338.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.312536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No55c335.37$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0576755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c298.08$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.453,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes71c263$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.941,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c252.35$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.994,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c238.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes40c237.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7213242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes12c233.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.782,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdd…49f2backed Yes66c211.63$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x139b…2db1backed Yes21c203.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.921553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c200.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes11c183.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.022,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No39c171.12$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No35c161.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.921,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No23c159.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c156.95$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes14c148$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2830333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes35c142.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes13c134.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.731,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes16c127.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No42c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.673148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No37c107.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.561,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c101.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.243,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes14c99.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes27c98.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5719648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes25c85.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4427037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c83.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.679,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes16c83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.869129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes23c82.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.572,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes14c79.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4917231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No66c76.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No37c76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.834,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes43c75.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1823540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No30c71.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.454339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No58c70.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.730565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.429448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No78c66.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.751,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes61c66.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes18c62.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.191618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7500…0decbacked Yes33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes34c59.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No55c56.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.138,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes27c54.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0629941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes26c54.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3911515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes67c51.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.949147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes29c51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0616324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3617838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.754129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes29c49.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1431219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes63c49.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6327051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No45c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.728456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes55c43.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9145540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702c…2533backed Yes53c37.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132272.7%16 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c33.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.934,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes68c31.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9623668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked No34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.225335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e1…4995backed Yes70c29.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.926346%29 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes73c29.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.924452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.714,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c28.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.572,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes65c28.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.884856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed No71c27.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.397047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa872…02c3backed Yes46c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.041471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes76c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6511446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No71c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.625162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No72c21.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6514674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6423549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf52e…1663backed Yes57c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.652142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No80c16.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes63c15.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8812955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.