Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4777435a28a1479d5859f74bd03ae669506a5e2ed0d1bb77947304b733f67c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,015$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 683$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 656$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 604.9$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 376.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 26c | 363.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 12c | 338.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.3 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 55c | 335.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 298.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 71c | 263$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 252.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 238.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 40c | 237.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 12c | 233.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…49f2backed Yes | 66c | 211.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 21c | 203.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 200.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 11c | 183.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 39c | 171.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 35c | 161.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 23c | 159.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 156.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 14c | 148$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 142.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 134.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 16c | 127.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 42c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 107.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 101.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 27c | 98.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 85.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 83.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 82.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 43c | 75.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 30c | 71.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 58c | 70.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 66.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes | 61c | 66.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 62.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…0decbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…d6ffbacked Yes | 34c | 59.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 56.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 27c | 54.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 26c | 54.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 67c | 51.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 29c | 49.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 63c | 49.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 55c | 43.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 53c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 68c | 31.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 70c | 29.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 73c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 28.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 65c | 28.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 71c | 27.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 21.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 16.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.